Labor Market Signals and College Major Choice

This study asks whether labor-market signals shape college major completion patterns and whether responsiveness differs across institutions and family-income groups. We combine IPEDS bachelor’s-completion data for 2014–2024 with BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, official CIP–SOC crosswalks, the 2025 Carnegie Classification, and public NPSAS PowerStats estimates for 2016 and 2020. A standardized MarketSignal combines occupational wage levels, wage growth, and employment growth and is matched to majors with a four-year lag. Model 1 uses school, major, and year fixed effects. Models 2a and 2b use grouped multinomial logit to compare institution tiers and income quartiles. The average Model 1 association is positive but small and marginally significant. R1/R2 institutions show a more positive response than other institutions, although absolute estimates are sensitive to controls. Income-quartile responses are strongly heterogeneous, with the top quartile showing the most positive response. These estimates are associative and preliminary; they identify differential responsiveness rather than proving that labor-market information causes educational inequality.